As predicted a quarter ago, business conditions in Polish agriculture deteriorated in the first quarter of 2026. The IRG SGH agricultural confidence indicator (IRGAGR) decreased by 12.6 pts compared to the fourth quarter of last year and is 7.2 points lower than a year ago. A deterioration in the agricultural economy at this time of year is a typical phenomenon, driven by the growing season. However, the decline in the IRGAGR value is too large to be attributed solely to seasonal factors. Even during periods of severe economic shocks (the global crisis of 2008/2009, or the energy crisis of 2022), which had a very strong negative impact on Polish agriculture, the quarterly declines in the indicator were smaller (amounting to 10.0, 9.3, and 11.6 pts).
The decline in the indicator stems both from a decrease in revenues from the sale of agricultural products and a deterioration in farmers’ sentiment – the value of the adjusted money income indicator, one of the two components of the IRGAGR, fell by as much as 15.1 pts, while the value of the sentiments indicator(the second component) fell by 7.6 pts. The quarterly declines in the values of both the agricultural confidence indicator and the two sub-indices are the largest in the more than 30-year history of the IRG SGH’s agricultural survey. The reasons for the deterioration of the agricultural business climate in the first quarter of this year are primarily low purchase prices for agricultural products, a decline in production, and a collapse in farmers’ sentiments.
Researches:
Konrad Walczyk, kwalcz1@sgh.waw.pl
Piotr Szajner, irg@sgh.waw.pl