In the third quarter of 2026, business conditions in the Polish agricultural sector improved once again. The value of the IRG SGH agriculture confidence indicator (IRGAGR) increased by 3.0 points compared to the 2nd quarter of this year. This improvement is consistent with the seasonal pattern of changes (increases in the second and third quarters, decreases in the first and fourth quarters). Despite the improvement, the economic sentiment index remains lower than a year ago (by 11.2 pts). For the past five quarters, year-over-year changes in the IRGAGR have been declining, and for the past three quarters they have been negative, indicating that the negative impact of factors driving the ongoing downward trend in agriculture is intensifying – primarily the so-called widening of the price spread (rising production costs coupled with falling purchase prices for agricultural produce), intensifying competition in agri-food markets, recurring weather anomalies, and persistent geopolitical tensions destabilizing energy markets. The improvement in economic conditions in the 3rd quarter is therefore purely seasonal in nature.
The improvement stems from an increase (compared to the 2nd quarter) in farm revenues – the value of the adjusted cash revenue indicator, one of the two components of the IRGAGR, rose by 8.0 pts. In contrast, the value of the confidence index, the other component of the IRGAGR, fell by 7.0 pts. The values of both sub-indices are lower than a year ago, by 10.5 and 12.7 pts, respectively.
The economic situation improved the most for farms located in the northern macroregion, the largest farms (with an area of over 50 ha), and those engaged in the cultivation of crops other than perennials. Farms located in the central-western and southern macroregions, as well as those engaged in the cultivation of perennial crops and animal husbandry, report a deterioration in economic conditions.
Despite a slight improvement in economic conditions, the situation in Polish agriculture remains difficult. This is forcing farmers to cut costs: to forgo purchasing new machinery and building livestock facilities, and to reduce their use of plant protection products, feed, and chemical fertilizers. All indicators related to investment expenditures and the purchase of current production inputs have declined compared to the previous quarter and remain at levels significantly lower than a year ago. Farmers are becoming less inclined to take out loans to finance production
Researches:
Konrad Walczyk, kwalcz1@sgh.waw.pl
Piotr Szajner, irg@sgh.waw.pl