March was a successive month of growing manufacturing activity. The industrial confidence indicator (ICI) increased by 2.6 pts to 5.5 pts. It is now 10.3 pts up from the figure recorded one year ago. The improvement was weaker than expected in February, and the annual rise in ICI was lower than recorded a month ago. It can signal that the upward trend, which has been continuing for more than a year, is losing its pace. The lower-than-expected betterment in manufacturing was due to weaker foreign demand – the balance of export orders increased but only slightly, by 0.6 pts (in February, the surveyed firms expected export orders to rise by 13.8 pts). Nevertheless, current situation in manufacturing is rather good. For the second month in a row, ICI grew above the long-term average (it is now 7.7 pts up from it). The balances of production and employment are positive and the highest since April, 2022. Cost pressure is decreasing. Manufacturers’ confidence and their optimism (expressed in their expectations) are on the rise. Taking all of this into consideration, we expect manufacturing activity to continue improving over the next months.
Researchers
Elżbieta Adamowicz, adel@sgh.waw.pl
Konrad Walczyk, kwalcz1@sgh.waw.pl