In February 2026, business conditions in the manufacturing industry deteriorated. The IRG SGH industrial confidence indicator (IRGIND) fell by 2.0 pts compared to January. The decline in the indicator is due to a deterioration in all of its components.
The confidence remains volatile. For many months, the indicator has alternated between slight increases and decreases over 1- to 3-month periods. No upward or downward trend is emerging, and the IRGIND hovers around the long-term average. The observations from the last month remain valid – a seasonal upturn in manufacturing is expected, but there are no clear signs of a sustained improvement in manufacturing activity. The escalation of the conflict in the Persian Gulf region is deepening the geopolitical uncertainty, which is likely the main cause of the stagnation in the manufacturing industry.
Researcher:
Konrad Walczyk, kwalcz1@sgh.waw.pl