The value of the IRG SGH industrial confidence indicator (ICI) fell by 3.1 points in December 2025. It currently stands at -5.3 points, 1.0 points lower than a year ago. The decline in the indicator is the result of a deterioration in all its components: a decrease in the levels of total orders and expected production volume, and an increase in the volume of finished product inventories.
Overall, the situation in the manufacturing industry at the end of 2025 does not look favorable. ICI is below its long-term mean (-2.2 points). Most balances are lower than a year ago, and the forecasts of the surveyed manufacturers show caution rather than optimism. Nevertheless, the upward trend that began a year ago is continuing. The coming months will see a seasonal decline in industrial activity. Taking all this into account, a recovery in manufacturing is unlikely in the near future.
Researchers:
Elżbieta Adamowicz, adel@sgh.waw.pl
Konrad Walczyk, kwalcz1@sgh.waw.pl