In the first quarter of 2026, the IRG SGH barometer (BARIRG) stood at -3.78 points, 0.38 pts higher than in the previous quarter and 2.15 pts higher than a year ago. The BARIRG value in the first quarter of 2026 is significantly higher (by 7.18 pts) than the average for the first quarters of the last 20 years.
The quarterly increase in the BARIRG was mainly due to a significant rise in the retail confidence indicator (by 3.5 pts) and an increase in the consumer sentiments indicator (by 0.7 pts). Households’ more positive assessment of their own situation translated into a greater propensity to make purchases, thereby contributing to an improvement in the overall economic situation in Poland. The remaining components of the BARIRG had a negative (a 1.3-pts decline in the industrial confidence indicator) or neutral (no change in the construction confidence indicator) impact on its quarterly growth.
These factors also underpinned the annual growth of the barometer. In addition to a significant improvement in consumer sentiments (a 3.3-pts increase) and retail confidence (a 1.3-pts increase), the manufacturing industry made a significant positive contribution (a 2.7-pts rise). Only the construction confidence indicator recorded a year-on-year decline, albeit a slight one, of just 0.4 pts.
Despite the improvement in overall economic situation – which, incidentally, is quite unusual for this time of year – the business cycle has not yet emerged with sufficient clarity. Since the beginning of 2024, the positive growth momentum of the domestic economy has been rather moderate. Currently, we are still seeing a stable, flat trend. An analysis of the sub-indicators of the barometer indicates a positive effect of the monetary transmission mechanism on domestic demand, reflected in households’ growing propensity to consume. Increased spending on defense capabilities is also having a positive impact on the domestic economy.
Researchers:
Konrad Walczyk, kwalcz1@sgh.waw.pl
Marcin Łupiński, kwalcz1@sgh.waw.pl