In the 3rd quarter of 2026, the IRG SGH Construction Confidence Indicator (CCI) stood at 4.2 points, marking an improvement of 3.0 pts compared to the 2nd quarter of 2026 and a continuation of the upward trend that has been ongoing since the beginning of the year. However, the current value of the indicator is 5.1 pts lower than a year ago. The increase in the indicator’s value resulted from improvements in both of its components. The balance of total orders increased during the quarter from 0.7 to 10.2 pts, while the balance of expected employment fell from 1.6 pts to -1.8 pts.
The balance of construction output rose from -4.8 pts in the 2nd quarter to 14.8 pts in the 3rd quarter of 2026, reaching a positive value after two quarters of declines. Forecasts for construction output are optimistic – the balance of expectations stands at 15.9 pts.
The level of export orders also rose, from 9.1 pts to 35.8 pts. Companies expect the positive growth in export orders to continue in the next quarter.
The rate of increase in construction service prices continues to slow – the balance fell by 2.4 pts. Survey participants expect it to decline further.
The employment balance rose from -1.0 pts in the 2nd quarter to 8.3 pts in the 3rd quarter, and the financial situation of construction companies improved. After falling to -8.8 pts in the 2nd quarter, the balance returned to positive territory (3.0 pts) in the 3rd quarter. The outlook is moderately positive.
The balance of capacity utilization, although it declined from 8.5 pts in the 2nd quarter to 5.2 pts in the 3rd quarter, remains positive. An increase in capacity utilization is expected in the next quarter. Capital expenditures remain at a low level. The balance stood at -8.2 pts, compared to -9.1 pts in the 2nd quarter and -21.1 pts in the 1st quarter. Despite the improvement, more companies still report a decrease in investment than an increase. The forecast balance is also negative, at -7.3 pts.
Assessments of the overall economic situation in the country improved for another consecutive quarter. The balance rose from -23.6 pts in the 2nd quarter to -19.4 pts in the 3rd quarter. However, the assessment of the situation in the industry deteriorated; the balance decreased by 2.3 pts. An improvement is forecast for both the construction sector and the economy as a whole in the coming quarter.
As always, construction firms most frequently cite raw material and supply prices (47.5%), competition within the industry (44.9%), and insufficient demand (39.2%) as barriers to business. They also complain about high tax burdens (31.6%) and the instability of legal regulations (24.7%).
Researches:
Konrad Walczyk, kwalcz1@sgh.waw.pl
Ewa Ratuszny, eratus@sgh.waw.pl