In the second quarter of 2026, the IRG SGH construction confidence indicator (CCI) stood at 1.2 pts, marking an increase of 1.3 pts from the first quarter and a return to positive values following a period of stagnation. The increase was driven by a rise in total orders (the balance improved from -10.7 pts in the first quarter to 0.7 pts currently). At the same time, employment forecasts deteriorated (from 10.5 pts to 1.6 pts).
Although the balance of production remained negative (-4.8 pts), it is 10.6 pts higher than in the first quarter. Forecasts for production growth in the coming quarter are clearly optimistic (26.3 pts).
The balance of construction service prices fell to 13.3 pts (from 24.4 pts in the first quarter of 2026), indicating a weakening of cost pressures.
The financial situation of construction companies has deteriorated – the balance stands at -8.8 pts.
Capacity utilization increased (8.5 pts compared to -12.3 pts in the first quarter), which may indicate that companies are receiving more orders. The balance for investment remained negative (-9.1 pts). However, the magnitude of the decline is smaller than in the previous quarter.
Assessments of the overall economic situation in the country have improved (-23.6 pts compared to -46.1 pts in the first quarter), but the balance remains negative. The situation in the construction sector is viewed with equal pessimism (-24.1 pts).
In summary, in the second quarter of 2026, we observe a moderate improvement in the construction sector’s economic situation, resulting mainly from an increase in orders and production expectations. However, the construction sector continues to grapple with financial problems, cost pressures, and regulatory barriers that undermine the prospects for sustainable growth.
Researches:
Konrad Walczyk, kwalcz1@sgh.waw.pl
Ewa Ratuszny, eratus@sgh.waw.pl