Workshop on “Uncertainty, Economic Activity, and Policy” aims at bringing together researchers focusing on:
— various approaches to measuring uncertainty and risk;
— uncertainty and its global spillovers;
— monetary and fiscal policy in times of uncertainty;
— the role of uncertainty in economic forecasting;
— identification of uncertainty shocks;
— assessing the effects of uncertainty at the firm and household levels;
— causal effects of uncertainty on the global economy and financial markets;
— uncertainty and climate change;
— trade policy uncertainty and geo-economic fragmentation;
— inflation uncertainty;
— forecasting in a changing environment.
KEYNOTE SPEAKERS: Efrem Castelnuovo (University of Padova) and Xuguang Simon Sheng (American University)
CONFERENCE DATE: 19-20 June 2026
CONFERENCE VENUE: SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Building S
IREF SPECIAL ISSUE: The papers presented at the workshop can be considered for inclusion in the International Review of Economics & Finance (IREF) special issue titled “Uncertainty, Economic Activity, and Policy”. The papers will be peer reviewed on an expedited basis. The special issue will be edited by Zidong An, Joscha Beckmann, Svetlana Makarova and Karol Szafranek.
- PRELIMINARY PROGRAM
DAY 1: June 19, 2026
9:45-10:00 Opening Remarks: Andrzej Sławiński (SGH Warsaw School of Economics)
10:00-11:30 Session 1: Uncertainty and Survey Expectations, Chair: Andrzej Torój
Measuring Uncertainty in Inflation Expectations Using Entropy: Evidence from Germany (1985-2025)
Jarosław Janecki (SGH Warsaw School of Economics)Sector-Specific Household Inflation Uncertainty and Monetary Policy
Prachi Srivastava (Heidelberg University)Belief Disagreement, Instability, and Uncertainty under Stochastic Recall
Pei Kuang (University of Macau)11:30-12:00 Coffee Break
12:00-13:00 Keynote Speech: Policy Environments and Household Inflation Expectations
Xuguang Simon Sheng (American University)13:00-14:00 Lunch
14:00-15:30 Session 2: Modeling Uncertainty, Chair: Wojciech Charemza
Uncertainty Spillovers in the EU: Global Shocks, Local Responses
Mirjam Salish (European Commission)A New Model of Trend Inflation Using Disaggregates, Survey Expectations, and Uncertainty
Saeed Zaman (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)What Do We Really Predict? Uncertainty in Returns versus Risk Exposures across Classical and Machine Learning Models
Anna Zamojska (University of Gdansk)15:30-16:00 Coffee Break
16:00-17:30 Session 3: Forecast Uncertainty, Chair: Svetlana Makarova
Does Postprocessing Prediction Errors Improve Probabilistic Forecasts? Evidence from the M4 Competition Dataset
Rafał Weron (Wrocław University of Science and Technology)Uncertain and Asymmetric Forecasts
Eric Vansteenberghe (Banque de France)Forecast Averaging and Multiple-split Ensemble Forecasting for Optimal BESS Trading under Uncertainty
Katarzyna Maciejowska (Wrocław University of Science and Technology)DAY 2: June 20, 2026
9:30-11:00 Session 4: Risk, Uncertainty and Ambiguity, Chair: Gazi Salah Uddin
Imperfect Banking Competition and the Propagation of Risk Shocks
Tommaso Gasparini (Banque de France)Real Activity and Uncertainty Shocks: The Long and the Short of It
Giovanni Pellegrino (University of Padova)The Role of Ambiguity in the Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from the European Repo Market
Poramapa Poonpakdee (Bank of Thailand)11:00-11:30 Coffee Break
11:30-13:00 Session 5: Impact of Uncertainty and Risk, Chair: Karol Szafranek
Media Coverage and Uncertainty Measures in Times of Polycrisis
Wojciech Charemza (Vistula University)Safe Haven Flows into the German Bond Market and the Role of Policy Disagreement
Peter Tillmann (Justus Liebig University Giessen)Systemic Risk in the Technology Sector Under Uncertainty
Aksel Riiga (Linkoping University)13:00-14:00 Lunch
14:00-15:00 Keynote Speech: The Inflation Uncertainty Amplifier
Efrem Castelnuovo (University of Padova, CESifo, and CAMA)
15:00-15:30 Coffee Break
15:30-17:00 Session 6: Geopolitical Risk, Chair: Michał Rubaszek
From Headlines to Hard Data: Mapping the Uneven Impact of Geopolitical Risk in Europe
Matteo Falagiarda (European Central Bank)Measurement and Effects of Geopolitical Risk. Evidence from New GPR Proxies Incorporating Political (In)stability.
Michael Murach (FernUniversitat in Hagen)How Geopolitical Risk Shapes the Energy Transition
Loredana Pisano (University of Palermo)17:00 Closing Remarks: Xuguang Simon Sheng
- LOCAL ORGANIZING COMMITTEE
Michał Rubaszek (Committee Chair), SGH Warsaw School of Economics
Piotr Dybka, SGH Warsaw School of Economics
Marek Kwas, SGH Warsaw School of Economics
Joanna Plebaniak, SGH Warsaw School of Economics
Bogusława Wąsik-Szczygieł, SGH Warsaw School of Economics- SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE
Xuguang Simon Sheng (Committee Chair), American University
Zidong An, Renmin University of China
Joscha Beckmann, FernUniversität Hagen
Wojciech Charemza, University of Leicester
Laurent Ferrara, SKEMA Business School
Davide Furceri, International Monetary Fund
Klodiana Istrefi, European Central Bank
Svetlana Makarova, University College London
Karol Szafranek, SGH Warsaw School of Economics
Bo Sun, University of Virginia
Gazi Salah Uddin, Linköping University- PREVIOUS EDITIONS OF NEUR CONFERENCES
First Biennal Conference on Uncertainty and Economic Forecasting London, UK, May 8-9, 2014
Second Biennial Conference on Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on the Global Economy, London, UK, May 12-13, 2016
Third Biennial Conference on Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Measurement, Facts and Fiction, Beijing, China, May 10-11, 2018
Fourth Biennial Conference on Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Global Perspectives, Online, May 13-14, 2021
Fifth Biennial Conference on Uncertainty, Economic Activity, and Forecasting in a Changing Environment, Padua, Italy, September 21-22, 2023
Sixth Biennial Conference on Uncertainty and Risk in Macroeconomics: Decision Making and Policy Challenges, June 12-13, 2025, Marseille- TRAVEL TIPS
Warsaw is served by two main public transport operators: WTP (Warsaw Public Transport - buses, trams, SKM trains and metro - red and yellow) and KM (Mazovian Railways - trains - green and yellow). WTP and KM in general use separate ticket systems with the exception of Chopin Airport - city center route, where you can use all WTP (recommended) and KM tickets. You can also use 24-hour and longer-term WTP tickets in KM trains within the city and surrounding areas (zones 1-2).
Public transport in Warsaw is generally safe and reliable, however, as in all major cities, there are occasional incidents of petty crime on more crowded tourist routes and during rush hours, so you may want to keep an eye on your belongings. Also, make sure you have a valid ticket with you as ticket inspectors (in disguise) are rather unforgiving.
Useful links:
- A short quite comprehensive overview of Warsaw transport options on youtube.
- A useful app/website for route planning, real time scheduling and ticket purchasing (make sure you validate your purchased ticket by scanning the QR code in the vehicle you board): jakdojade
- Warsaw Public Transport (WTP) website,
- Chopin Airport (WAW) -> city center:
- Modlin Airport (WMI) -> city center:
- Train/bus stations -> city center:
- Warsaw Tourist Office website.
- ACCOMMODATION
Special rates arranged at HOTEL METROPOL. Booking by email at hotel.metropol@syrena.com.pl with code SGH_RID_NEUR.
