In the 4th quarter of 2023 the financial confidence indicator (IRGFIN) declined (compared to the previous quarter) by 7.6 pts to -5.6 pts. It is now 10.6 pts down from the respective year 2022 figure. Situation in the financial sector is expected to slightly worse in the 1st quarter of 2024 (the predicted value of the indicator equals to -6.9 pts). Both the current and predicted values of the indicator signal low confidence in good growing conditions of the sector. Of the four components of IRGFIN, the confidence indicator of financial intermediaries (KP) took the lowest value, -83.3 pts, and the insurance confidence indicator (KU) – the highest one, 25 pts. The surveyed financial institutions reported a fall in their profits, a rise in operating risk and worsening of business conditions.
Researchers:
Barbara Cieślik, bciesl1@sgh.waw.pl
Maciej Piotrowski, mpiotro2@sgh.waw.pl
Marek Radzikowski, mradzik@sgh.waw.pl